NFL Survivor Picks: How to Make This Week's Pick
Your survivor pick takes five minutes a week if you follow the same routine every time. Most seasons don't end on bad luck; they end on a rushed or clever pick in a week that didn't need one. Here is the routine, and how Runtiva pools picked last week.
The five-minute weekly routine
- Cross off what you've used. Each team once. Start from the teams you still have; the app won't let you pick a used one, but know your list before you rank anything.
- Rank this week's favorites. Sort what is left by the point spread or moneyline. A 7-point favorite wins roughly three times in four; a 3-point favorite, closer to three in five. That ranking is your shortlist.
- Check what you'll need later. For the top two or three, look at the next three or four weeks. If a team is your only good option in one of them, it is worth more then than now.
- Size up your pool. In a small pool, take the safest team you can spare. In a big one, the most popular pick is worth a little less: if it loses, half the field goes with you, and if it wins you gained nothing.
- Lock it in, then check back. Save a pick as soon as the round opens so a busy weekend can't cost you, then revisit after the injury news. You can change it until that game starts.
New to survivor? The Player Guide's strategy basics explain win probability, popularity and future value in more depth.
How Runtiva pools picked: Week 5
The most-picked teams across 10 Runtiva NFL survivor pools (340 picks), published after every game was graded.
| Team | Share of picks | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 38.8% | Lost |
| Houston Texans | 18.8% | Won |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 18.2% | Won |
| Detroit Lions | 5% | Won |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5% | Won |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2.9% | Lost |
| New England Patriots | 1.8% | Won |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.5% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 1.5% | Push |
| Denver Broncos | 1.5% | Won |
Three traps that show up every season
- The Thursday lock. A Thursday team locks on Thursday, even though the round runs to Monday. Pick it only if it is clearly your best option.
- Saving every good team. A team you hoarded is worth nothing if you're out in October. Spend a strong team when the week calls for it.
- Forgetting the pool's rules. Strikes, revives and multi-pick weeks change what a safe pick is. Check your pool's rules sheet once.
Not in a pool yet?
Runtiva survivor pools are free, with no entry fee and no prizes. Start one for your group in a few taps, or run one for the office. The app opens and locks every week, grades every pick and keeps the standings.
Survivor picks FAQ
Who is the safest survivor pick this week?
The team the betting market makes the biggest favorite, almost every week. The point spread and moneyline already price in home field, injuries, and rest, so they are a better estimate of win probability than any power ranking. Start there, then decide whether that team is worth more to you later in the season.
Should I trust a big road favorite?
Yes, if the number says so. The spread already accounts for home-field advantage, so a 7-point road favorite is as likely to win as a 7-point home favorite. Don't knock a team off your list just for traveling.
How far ahead should I plan?
Three or four weeks is enough. Look at the weeks coming up and ask whether this week's team is the only good option in one of them. If it is, find a different team now. Planning the whole season rarely survives the injury report.
Can I see what the rest of my pool picked before kickoff?
No. On Runtiva each pick stays private until that team's game starts, so nobody can copy you and you can't copy anyone else.
Two teams look equally safe. Which one do I take?
The one you are less likely to need later. If that is still a tie, take the one that plays later in the week: your pick stays changeable until its game starts, so you keep the option to react to late injury news.
Is it worth picking an underdog to be different?
Almost never in the regular season. A coin-flip team gives up far more in survival odds than it gains you in a pool, and it ends more seasons than any other single decision.